Analyst: Windows Phone OS to Overtake iOS by 2015

File this one under “lulz.” According to IDC, Windows Phone 7 (and Windows Mobile) will overtake Apple’s iOS by 2015, making it the #2 operating system for smartphones behind Google’s Android OS. Of course, even though it would be #2, it would still face a 2-to-1 margin of difference between it and Android.

According to IDC’s Ramon Llamas, Android will have the #1 share of smartphones with 45.4%. Windows Phone/Mobile would be second with 20.9%, while iOS would carry 15.3%. Blackberry, Symbian (Nokia’s OS that is on the way out) and other operating systems would account for 18.5% of smartphone operating systems.

Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in. For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users.

Of course it’s hard to take these kinds of claims particularly seriously. For starters, who knows what will happen with iOS or Windows Phone in the next few years? I know I don’t. I doubt the people working on said operating systems even knows. Moreover, I admit that the concept of WP7 becoming the #2 OS is something of a joke simply because there is a serious lack of handsets supporting it. Obviously this will change as more devices come out down the road (especially with the Nokia deal), but right now it seems a little premature to say that Apple is going to be knocked down to #3.

Not that I’d complain if it did happen, of course.


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